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KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
85%
HRES
55%
AIFS
51%
WN2
33%
ICON
2%
Consensus
44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 43.5¢Risks 43.45u
VS
ICONNO 56.5¢Risks 56.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.55u · ICON −56.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00AIFS Single: 57.2% · 2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.4% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.2% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.5% · 2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.2% · 2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.7% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.9% · 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.2% · 2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.9% · 2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.9% · 2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.9% · 2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.7% · 2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.1% · 2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.0% · 2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.6% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.3% · 2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00IFS HRES: 60.1% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00IFS HRES: 54.9% · 2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00IFS HRES: 74.0% · 2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:0009-28 14:4810-02 20:4510-04 02:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:0041.8%72.4%88.7%60.1%33.7%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:0041.8%72.9%88.7%60.1%33.7%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:0041.8%72.9%88.7%60.1%33.7%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:0041.8%72.9%88.3%60.1%7.7%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:0041.8%72.9%88.3%60.1%7.7%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:0041.8%72.9%88.3%60.1%7.7%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:0041.8%72.9%88.3%60.1%7.7%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:0041.1%72.9%88.3%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:0041.1%72.9%88.3%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:0041.1%72.9%88.3%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:0041.1%72.9%88.3%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:0041.1%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:0041.1%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:0041.1%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:0041.1%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:0034.6%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:0034.6%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:0034.6%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:0034.6%73.2%85.0%65.3%7.7%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:0034.6%73.2%79.2%65.3%26.8%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:0034.6%73.2%79.2%65.3%26.8%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:0034.6%73.2%79.2%65.3%26.8%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:0057.2%73.2%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:0057.2%73.2%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:0057.2%73.2%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:0057.2%73.2%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:0057.2%73.2%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:0057.2%63.5%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:0057.2%63.5%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:0057.2%63.5%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:0054.0%63.5%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:0054.0%63.5%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:0054.0%64.2%79.2%41.8%26.8%
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:0067.6%64.6%44.9%54.9%12.2%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:0067.6%65.7%44.9%54.9%12.2%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:0067.6%65.7%44.9%54.9%12.2%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:0067.6%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:0067.6%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:0067.6%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:0067.6%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:0047.1%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:0047.1%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:0047.1%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:0047.1%65.7%48.7%54.9%41.0%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:0047.1%65.7%36.1%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:0047.1%65.7%36.0%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:0047.1%65.7%33.6%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:0047.1%65.7%33.6%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:0047.1%65.7%33.6%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:0047.1%65.7%33.6%63.4%41.0%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:0058.8%65.7%33.6%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:0058.8%65.7%33.6%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:0058.8%65.7%33.6%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:0058.8%65.7%33.6%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:0058.8%87.2%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:0058.8%87.2%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:0058.8%87.2%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:0058.8%87.2%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:0054.0%87.2%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:0054.0%87.2%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:0054.0%87.3%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:0054.0%87.3%35.3%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:0054.0%87.3%25.7%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:0054.0%87.3%25.7%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:0054.0%87.3%25.7%74.0%5.0%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:0054.9%87.3%25.7%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:0054.9%87.3%25.7%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:0054.9%87.3%25.7%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:0054.9%87.3%25.7%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:0054.9%87.3%25.7%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:0054.9%84.9%32.8%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:0054.9%84.9%32.8%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:0054.9%84.9%32.8%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:0051.0%84.9%32.8%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:0051.0%84.9%32.8%55.3%2.0%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:0051.0%84.9%32.8%55.3%2.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble85%82.5°F2.9°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%80.0°F3.1°F2026-10-03 14:00Pending
National Blend56%80.0°F3.3°F2026-10-03 06:00Pending
IFS HRES55%80.0°F3.7°F2026-10-03 12:00Pending
AIFS Single51%79.6°F4.0°F2026-10-03 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%78.2°F2.9°F2026-10-03 12:00Pending
ICON2%72.3°F3.5°F2026-10-03 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗