KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

55%

51%

33%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

ICONNO 56.5¢Risks 56.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.55u · ICON −56.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	40.1%	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	53.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	19.4%	36.1%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	24.1%	34.9%	28.1%	—	65.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	13.6%	31.7%	37.1%	—	47.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	0.7%	50.8%	11.4%	—	35.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	11.9%	25.5%	23.6%	—	23.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	15.3%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	16.2%	—	21.9%	25.1%	17.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	2.7%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	1.4%	79.2%	28.4%	—	17.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	7.5%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	5.5%	18.4%	50.0%	—	16.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	15.4%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	11.1%	26.3%	17.1%	—	13.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	31.2%	42.8%	9.0%	25.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	65.5%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	53.3%	43.5%	9.4%	22.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	59.0%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	48.8%	39.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	59.5%	35.9%	23.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	8.0%	62.3%	29.8%	18.2%	35.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	4.9%	51.3%	33.7%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	2.4%	68.1%	13.4%	43.3%	24.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	8.1%	58.3%	8.6%	—	9.8%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	7.3%	57.2%	10.2%	20.2%	13.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	59.0%	11.2%	—	3.4%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	4.4%	72.4%	12.5%	4.4%	11.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	10.7%	54.9%	24.1%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	78.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	72.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗