KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

73%

52%

48%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

ICONNO 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.20u · ICON −36.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	55.2%	61.2%	62.8%	42.1%	47.7%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	55.2%	62.5%	62.8%	42.1%	47.7%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	55.2%	62.5%	62.8%	42.1%	47.7%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	55.2%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	55.2%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	55.2%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	55.2%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	56.5%	42.1%	50.0%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	60.3%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	61.8%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	66.9%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	66.9%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	66.9%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	64.4%	62.5%	66.9%	46.0%	50.0%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	72.5%	62.5%	66.9%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	72.5%	62.5%	66.9%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	72.5%	62.5%	66.9%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	72.5%	62.5%	66.9%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	72.5%	75.6%	70.6%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	72.5%	75.6%	70.6%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	72.5%	75.6%	70.6%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	72.5%	75.6%	70.6%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00	76.2%	75.6%	70.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	76.2%	75.9%	70.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	76.2%	76.0%	70.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	76.2%	76.0%	70.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	76.2%	76.0%	69.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	76.2%	76.0%	69.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	76.2%	76.0%	69.5%	69.6%	39.9%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	78.3%	76.0%	69.5%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	78.3%	76.0%	69.5%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	78.3%	76.0%	69.5%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	78.3%	76.0%	69.5%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	78.3%	76.0%	69.5%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	78.3%	73.3%	75.4%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	78.3%	73.3%	75.4%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	78.3%	73.3%	75.4%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	79.7%	73.3%	75.4%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	79.7%	73.3%	75.4%	51.8%	47.9%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	79.7%	73.3%	75.4%	51.8%	47.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	81.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	81.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	79.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
ICON	48%	79.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 02 · 14:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗