KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

73%

52%

48%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

ICONNO 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.20u · ICON −36.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	36.9%	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	19.3%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	14.3%	21.8%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	0.5%	—	1.6%	14.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	24.3%	23.2%	40.6%	—	24.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	24.5%	10.3%	23.4%	—	33.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	23.0%	6.4%	35.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	63.9%	41.7%	50.0%	30.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	54.4%	23.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	44.5%	24.4%	—	20.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	45.3%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	35.7%	75.3%	19.0%	—	37.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	53.0%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	42.8%	90.1%	15.1%	—	40.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	50.0%	94.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.2%	88.6%	13.1%	0.5%	35.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	44.4%	91.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	38.5%	84.7%	12.1%	0.1%	31.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	44.0%	90.8%	14.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	48.8%	91.5%	15.1%	53.7%	36.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	41.0%	89.7%	15.8%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	28.4%	88.0%	9.5%	46.0%	27.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	40.3%	81.8%	11.8%	—	27.6%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	60.1%	84.6%	16.3%	66.9%	42.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	68.9%	85.6%	11.2%	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	65.4%	86.6%	6.6%	65.4%	30.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	73.3%	87.7%	18.1%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	81.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	81.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	79.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
ICON	48%	79.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 02 · 14:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗