KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

79%

73%

58%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.4¢Risks 74.35u

ICONNO 25.6¢Risks 25.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.65u · ICON −25.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:23+00:00	62.1%	50.0%	34.1%	63.6%	54.9%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	62.1%	50.0%	34.1%	63.6%	54.9%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	62.1%	50.0%	34.1%	63.6%	54.9%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	62.1%	50.0%	33.3%	63.6%	54.9%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	62.1%	50.0%	33.3%	63.6%	54.9%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	62.1%	50.0%	33.3%	63.6%	54.9%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	66.1%	50.0%	33.3%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	66.1%	50.0%	33.3%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	66.1%	50.0%	33.3%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	66.1%	50.0%	33.3%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	66.1%	50.0%	33.3%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	66.1%	47.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	66.1%	47.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	66.1%	47.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T13:44:45+00:00	65.4%	47.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	65.4%	47.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T15:18:11+00:00	65.4%	48.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	65.4%	48.9%	29.1%	65.9%	54.9%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	65.4%	48.9%	29.1%	66.1%	54.9%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	65.4%	48.9%	29.1%	66.1%	54.9%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	65.4%	48.9%	29.1%	66.1%	54.9%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	65.4%	48.9%	29.1%	66.1%	54.9%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.1%	59.7%	54.9%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.1%	59.7%	54.9%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.1%	59.7%	54.9%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.1%	59.7%	54.9%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.1%	59.7%	54.9%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.9%	59.6%	54.9%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.9%	59.6%	54.9%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	62.6%	48.9%	29.9%	59.6%	54.9%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	64.0%	48.9%	29.9%	59.6%	54.9%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	64.0%	48.9%	29.9%	59.6%	54.9%
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	75.0%	54.1%	54.9%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	75.0%	54.1%	54.9%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	75.0%	54.1%	54.9%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	70.2%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	72.9%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	72.9%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	72.9%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	72.9%	71.6%	72.6%	54.1%	66.0%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	72.9%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	72.9%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	72.9%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	72.9%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.0%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.8%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.8%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.8%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	74.3%	72.6%	75.8%	60.9%	66.0%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	80.1%	72.6%	75.8%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	80.1%	72.6%	75.8%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	80.1%	72.6%	75.8%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	80.1%	72.6%	75.8%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	80.1%	92.3%	78.6%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	80.1%	92.3%	78.6%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	80.1%	92.3%	78.6%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	80.1%	92.3%	78.6%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	78.5%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	78.5%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	78.5%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	78.5%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	88.1%	56.7%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	81.9%	92.3%	77.7%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	81.9%	90.3%	79.3%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	81.9%	90.3%	79.3%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	81.9%	90.3%	79.3%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	79.5%	90.3%	79.3%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	79.5%	90.3%	79.3%	72.6%	58.4%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	79.5%	90.3%	79.3%	72.6%	58.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	85.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	85.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	84.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	84.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	82.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗