KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 04 · 02:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

79%

73%

58%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.4¢Risks 74.35u

ICONNO 25.6¢Risks 25.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.65u · ICON −25.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	21.1%	—	—	26.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	25.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	6.8%	46.0%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	30.5%	14.9%	6.0%	—	38.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	37.1%	47.8%	35.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	50.8%	39.4%	54.6%	46.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	72.6%	30.9%	—	42.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	62.3%	40.9%	—	20.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	38.2%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	44.8%	71.6%	30.7%	—	58.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	58.9%	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	46.3%	91.7%	44.5%	—	59.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	52.9%	95.8%	35.7%	—	51.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	52.0%	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	46.9%	94.5%	39.8%	—	55.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	55.3%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	53.3%	93.4%	34.1%	0.1%	65.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	52.2%	92.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	45.4%	92.4%	39.6%	0.0%	59.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	57.2%	91.8%	48.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	74.4%	90.5%	52.5%	88.2%	80.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	76.2%	92.3%	51.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	76.0%	92.1%	47.3%	83.5%	71.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	82.7%	91.3%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	88.5%	92.2%	62.8%	87.0%	89.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	84.7%	95.9%	59.0%	—	74.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	85.8%	96.6%	63.9%	84.8%	76.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	86.9%	93.7%	71.9%	—	83.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	85.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	85.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	84.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	84.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	82.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗