KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

41%

29%

12%

11%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.00u · WN2 −70.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T04:07:49+00:00	47.1%	24.8%	17.6%	30.4%	5.3%
2026-10-06T04:53:30+00:00	47.1%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	5.3%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	47.1%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	5.3%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	47.1%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	5.3%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	47.1%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	5.3%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	51.0%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	51.0%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	51.0%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	51.0%	24.8%	33.8%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	51.0%	39.8%	26.9%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	51.0%	39.8%	26.9%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	51.0%	39.8%	26.9%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	51.0%	39.8%	26.9%	30.4%	11.7%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	45.0%	39.8%	26.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	45.0%	39.8%	26.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	45.0%	40.2%	26.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	45.0%	40.2%	26.9%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	45.0%	40.2%	13.0%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	45.0%	40.2%	13.0%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	45.0%	40.2%	13.0%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	45.0%	40.2%	13.0%	30.4%	12.3%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	48.0%	40.2%	13.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	48.0%	40.2%	13.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	48.0%	40.2%	13.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	48.0%	40.2%	13.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	48.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	48.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	48.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	48.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	49.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	49.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	49.0%	41.3%	11.0%	28.7%	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	86.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	85.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	84.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	82.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗