KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

41%

29%

12%

11%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.00u · WN2 −70.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	5.6%	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	7.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	1.0%	17.1%	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	8.2%	2.7%	0.8%	—	12.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	10.6%	16.5%	10.0%	—	10.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	17.4%	11.0%	20.0%	14.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	34.5%	6.7%	—	11.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	23.2%	10.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	8.5%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	10.9%	29.9%	5.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	18.4%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	10.6%	59.1%	9.8%	—	17.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	13.2%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	12.6%	69.6%	5.6%	—	12.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	11.4%	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	62.2%	6.1%	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	11.6%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	9.9%	55.5%	3.8%	0.0%	16.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	8.7%	51.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	48.8%	4.2%	0.0%	11.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	9.2%	45.2%	6.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	18.2%	40.1%	6.7%	35.4%	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	18.2%	42.3%	5.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	16.5%	39.4%	4.0%	24.0%	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	21.1%	35.0%	4.0%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	26.8%	34.5%	6.8%	24.5%	28.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	19.2%	44.0%	4.8%	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	18.1%	43.7%	5.2%	17.1%	10.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.0%	29.5%	6.8%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	86.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	85.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	84.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	82.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗