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KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 07 · 06:37 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
22%
WN2
12%
EPS
9%
HRES
9%
ICON
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 12.1¢Risks 6.05u
VS
ICONNO 87.9¢Risks 43.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.95u · ICON −43.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.2% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.7% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.6% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.5% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 7.8% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 9.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 4.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0009-22 06:0009-30 00:0010-07 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:002.3%————1.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.1%————2.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:009.1%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.2%————3.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.4%————1.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.9%————2.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.1%————2.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.1%————2.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.8%————1.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:008.3%—————
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:008.4%—0.2%——1.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:002.8%—————
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.3%————2.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:001.8%—0.1%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.5%—0.0%——2.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:001.8%—2.0%——2.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:001.5%—3.5%———
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:003.1%———2.5%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:002.3%—4.2%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:005.6%0.2%7.2%——5.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:003.6%—0.2%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:004.5%2.7%0.7%0.1%—4.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:003.6%—7.3%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:004.1%3.6%6.4%3.3%—3.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:003.6%—8.3%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:002.8%—6.5%3.6%7.8%5.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:002.9%—10.2%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:003.6%—15.9%1.8%—3.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:003.4%—10.6%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:003.8%—8.7%2.8%—0.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:003.6%2.2%15.7%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:004.7%2.9%11.8%1.2%—6.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:005.0%5.7%28.7%———
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:004.3%2.6%32.2%2.3%—5.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:003.4%3.4%39.7%———
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:003.0%3.0%41.3%1.0%—2.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:003.0%2.5%28.2%———
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:003.4%1.6%32.1%1.0%—2.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.0%2.3%22.0%———
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:002.9%1.7%24.7%0.5%0.0%3.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:002.4%1.4%20.6%0.0%——
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:001.9%0.7%18.3%0.5%0.0%1.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:001.9%1.3%15.2%0.7%—0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:002.1%3.3%11.8%0.7%9.5%4.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:001.2%3.0%12.2%0.5%—0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:001.1%2.4%10.1%0.3%4.3%1.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:001.0%3.2%7.6%0.3%——
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.6%4.4%6.8%0.5%3.7%4.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.1%2.2%9.9%0.2%—0.9%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.8%8.9%0.2%1.6%0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%1.4%3.7%0.3%—0.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single22%86.4°F4.0°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%86.1°F2.9°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble9%85.9°F2.7°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
IFS HRES9%84.4°F3.7°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
NWS forecast6%86.0°F2.2°F2026-10-07 03:00Pending
ICON2%82.4°F3.5°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
National Blend2%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 30 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗