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KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 01 · 10:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
85%
AIFS
84%
EPS
77%
WN2
44%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 64.5¢Risks 64.50u
VS
WN2NO 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.50u · WN2 −35.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00AIFS Single: 84.4% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00IFS HRES: 85.1% · 2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00IFS HRES: 85.1% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00IFS HRES: 85.1% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00IFS HRES: 85.1% · 2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00IFS HRES: 85.1% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:0010-01 07:4210-01 09:1310-01 10:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:0084.4%76.9%43.9%85.1%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:0084.4%76.9%43.9%85.1%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:0084.4%76.9%43.9%85.1%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:0084.4%76.9%43.9%85.1%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:0084.4%76.9%43.9%85.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES85%87.1°F6.3°F2026-10-01 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%86.1°F5.5°F2026-10-01 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble77%83.0°F3.4°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.4°F5.5°F2026-10-01 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 244%79.7°F5.2°F2026-09-30 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗