KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 01 · 10:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

77%

44%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

WN2NO 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.50u · WN2 −35.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	8.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	35.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	60.0%	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	46.8%	—	—	53.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	20.3%	1.7%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	77.6%	28.6%	76.5%	61.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	85.6%	39.9%	—	55.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	81.6%	47.7%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	64.8%	91.9%	38.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	35.6%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	42.5%	95.1%	10.4%	—	49.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	29.6%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	22.8%	95.3%	48.2%	—	64.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	47.3%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	40.9%	94.7%	60.9%	—	66.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	51.9%	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	55.8%	94.4%	47.1%	—	76.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	62.8%	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	55.1%	95.8%	56.1%	—	75.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	74.7%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	91.0%	94.7%	66.9%	98.0%	86.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	93.7%	98.2%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.9%	94.9%	98.2%	76.7%	—	70.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	96.7%	98.5%	67.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	96.3%	95.4%	79.2%	74.4%	86.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	91.8%	95.4%	72.0%	—	69.8%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	94.3%	96.0%	68.1%	86.6%	77.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	96.5%	97.0%	86.8%	—	86.1%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	98.4%	97.9%	89.2%	94.9%	89.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	98.9%	99.0%	85.6%	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	98.5%	99.2%	89.0%	91.7%	78.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	99.2%	99.0%	93.7%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	87.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	86.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	83.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	79.7°F	5.2°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗