KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

68%

67%

40%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

WN2NO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.20u · WN2 −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	79.7%	67.0%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	79.7%	67.0%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	79.7%	67.0%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:45+00:00	77.0%	67.0%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	76.9%	67.0%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T15:18:11+00:00	76.9%	68.1%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	76.9%	68.1%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	76.9%	68.1%	33.3%	81.1%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	76.9%	68.1%	41.9%	81.1%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	76.9%	68.1%	41.9%	81.1%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	76.9%	68.1%	41.9%	81.1%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	41.9%	67.0%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	41.9%	67.0%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	41.9%	67.0%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	41.9%	67.0%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	41.9%	67.0%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	39.5%	67.0%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	39.5%	67.0%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	73.5%	68.1%	39.5%	67.0%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	74.1%	68.1%	39.5%	67.0%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	74.1%	68.1%	39.5%	67.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	85.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	84.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	82.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	80.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 01 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗