KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

68%

67%

40%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

WN2NO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.20u · WN2 −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	6.1%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	29.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	53.8%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	40.3%	—	—	47.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	15.9%	1.1%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	72.0%	23.0%	70.8%	54.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	81.1%	33.0%	—	48.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	76.1%	40.2%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	57.1%	88.5%	30.9%	—	47.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	28.3%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	34.5%	92.6%	7.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	22.6%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	16.7%	92.7%	39.6%	—	56.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	38.5%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	32.2%	91.7%	51.8%	—	57.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	42.5%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	46.1%	91.0%	37.6%	—	68.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	53.0%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	44.9%	92.9%	45.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	65.5%	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	85.7%	91.0%	56.5%	96.2%	79.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	89.3%	96.5%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	91.0%	96.5%	66.9%	—	59.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	93.8%	96.9%	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	92.9%	91.5%	69.2%	63.4%	78.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	85.7%	91.3%	60.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	89.3%	92.1%	55.4%	78.0%	65.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	92.9%	93.8%	77.9%	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	96.3%	95.3%	80.9%	89.8%	81.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	97.1%	97.3%	75.2%	—	61.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	96.3%	97.8%	79.7%	83.9%	65.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	97.7%	97.2%	86.9%	—	83.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	85.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	83.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	84.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	82.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	80.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 01 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗