KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

61%

58%

56%

44%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

HRESNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.80u · HRES −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	61.3%	45.3%	24.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	61.3%	45.3%	24.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	61.3%	45.3%	24.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:47+00:00	61.3%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	61.3%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	61.3%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	70.8%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	70.8%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	70.8%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	70.8%	45.3%	58.9%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	70.8%	53.7%	70.1%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	70.8%	53.7%	70.1%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	70.8%	53.7%	70.1%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	70.8%	53.7%	70.1%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	66.8%	53.6%	70.1%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	66.8%	53.6%	71.8%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	66.8%	54.9%	71.8%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	66.8%	54.9%	71.8%	38.1%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	66.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	66.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	66.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	66.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	63.9%	38.1%	62.0%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	68.8%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T03:33:06+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	66.3%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	58.8%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	58.8%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	58.8%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	68.1%	54.9%	58.8%	48.8%	62.0%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	74.3%	54.9%	58.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	74.3%	54.9%	58.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	74.3%	54.9%	58.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	74.3%	54.9%	58.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	74.3%	81.9%	60.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	74.3%	81.9%	60.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	74.3%	81.9%	60.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	74.3%	81.9%	60.8%	44.5%	58.2%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	55.7%	81.9%	60.8%	44.5%	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	85.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	84.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	84.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	84.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗