KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

61%

58%

56%

44%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

HRESNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.80u · HRES −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	3.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	20.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	41.3%	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	28.4%	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	9.0%	0.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	59.1%	13.7%	57.7%	40.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	69.6%	21.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	62.7%	26.4%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	41.3%	78.8%	18.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	16.3%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	20.7%	84.8%	3.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	11.9%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	8.0%	84.4%	24.1%	—	38.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	22.9%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	17.8%	82.2%	33.9%	—	39.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	25.3%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	27.9%	80.3%	21.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	33.5%	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	25.9%	83.0%	26.8%	—	46.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	44.7%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	69.9%	78.7%	35.1%	89.1%	60.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	75.1%	89.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	77.6%	89.0%	44.2%	—	36.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	82.5%	89.8%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	80.1%	77.3%	45.0%	38.9%	56.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	66.3%	76.2%	34.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	71.6%	77.0%	29.5%	54.0%	39.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	77.9%	79.9%	52.8%	—	51.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	85.4%	82.8%	55.8%	70.7%	57.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	87.2%	88.0%	47.0%	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	83.9%	89.0%	51.6%	57.9%	34.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	87.7%	85.9%	61.4%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	85.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	84.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	84.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	84.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗