KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

69%

67%

43%

34%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

ICONNO 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.70u · ICON −48.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	13.3%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	13.3%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	13.3%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	13.3%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	13.3%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T11:29:10+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	10.5%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	10.5%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	54.3%	23.1%	10.5%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T13:44:45+00:00	50.7%	23.1%	10.5%	60.0%	—
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	50.7%	23.1%	10.6%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T15:18:11+00:00	50.7%	24.0%	10.6%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	50.7%	24.0%	10.6%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	50.7%	24.0%	10.6%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	50.7%	24.0%	15.3%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	50.7%	24.0%	15.3%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	50.7%	24.0%	15.3%	59.9%	—
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	15.3%	42.5%	—
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	15.3%	42.5%	—
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	15.3%	42.5%	—
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	15.3%	42.5%	—
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	15.3%	42.5%	—
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	46.4%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T03:20:56+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	13.9%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:47+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	47.1%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	56.7%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	56.7%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	56.7%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	56.7%	24.0%	42.7%	42.5%	—
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	56.7%	30.0%	53.5%	27.3%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	56.7%	30.0%	53.5%	27.3%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	56.7%	30.0%	53.5%	27.3%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	56.7%	30.0%	53.5%	27.3%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	52.3%	30.3%	53.5%	27.2%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	52.3%	30.3%	55.3%	27.2%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	52.3%	31.1%	55.3%	27.2%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	52.3%	31.1%	55.3%	27.2%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	52.3%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	52.3%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	52.3%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	52.3%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	46.5%	27.2%	50.6%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	54.5%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T03:33:06+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	49.1%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	41.2%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	41.2%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	41.2%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	53.8%	31.1%	41.2%	36.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	59.7%	31.1%	41.2%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	59.7%	31.1%	41.2%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	59.7%	31.1%	41.2%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	59.7%	31.1%	41.2%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	59.7%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	59.7%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	59.7%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	59.7%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	41.1%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	37.3%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	37.3%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	37.3%	31.4%	44.5%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	51.6%	51.7%	37.3%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	51.6%	51.7%	37.3%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	51.6%	51.7%	37.3%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	51.6%	51.7%	37.3%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	51.6%	51.7%	37.3%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	44.0%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	41.1%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	41.1%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	67.3%	50.0%	41.1%	33.3%	26.8%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	41.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T08:15:42+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	41.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	41.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	41.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	41.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	51.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	51.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	68.3%	50.0%	51.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	59.4%	50.0%	51.1%	26.1%	6.9%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	59.4%	50.0%	51.1%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00	59.4%	51.6%	51.1%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	59.4%	51.6%	51.1%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	59.4%	51.6%	51.1%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	59.4%	51.6%	44.6%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	59.4%	51.6%	44.6%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	59.4%	51.6%	44.6%	26.1%	7.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	44.6%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	44.6%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	44.6%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	44.6%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	44.6%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	67.5%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	70.6%	51.6%	53.2%	32.3%	16.6%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	74.8%	51.6%	53.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	74.8%	51.6%	53.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	74.8%	51.6%	53.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	74.8%	51.6%	53.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	74.8%	51.6%	53.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	74.8%	65.6%	55.9%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	74.8%	65.6%	55.9%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	74.8%	65.6%	55.9%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	70.9%	65.6%	55.9%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	71.0%	65.3%	55.9%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	71.0%	55.6%	55.9%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	71.0%	55.6%	55.9%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	71.0%	55.6%	55.9%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	71.0%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	71.0%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	71.0%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	16.6%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	68.6%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	68.6%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	68.6%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	68.6%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	68.6%	55.6%	51.2%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	68.6%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	68.6%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	68.6%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	50.0%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	67.8%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	15.9%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	72.7%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	72.7%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	72.7%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	72.7%	54.2%	70.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	72.7%	66.6%	66.2%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	72.7%	66.6%	66.2%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	72.7%	66.6%	66.2%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	72.7%	66.6%	66.2%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	66.2%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	66.2%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	66.3%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	66.3%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	47.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	47.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	47.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	71.9%	66.6%	47.4%	50.0%	45.5%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	72.8%	66.6%	47.4%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	72.8%	66.6%	47.4%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	72.8%	66.6%	47.4%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	72.8%	66.6%	47.4%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	72.8%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	72.8%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	72.8%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	72.8%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	70.3%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	70.3%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	70.3%	67.8%	46.1%	35.7%	53.4%
2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00	59.9%	66.5%	63.4%	46.8%	44.4%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	59.9%	66.5%	36.6%	46.8%	44.4%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	59.9%	66.5%	36.6%	46.8%	44.4%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	59.9%	66.5%	36.6%	46.8%	44.4%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	66.5%	66.5%	36.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	66.5%	66.5%	36.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-07T21:04:33+00:00	66.5%	66.5%	36.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	66.5%	66.5%	36.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	66.5%	66.5%	36.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	66.5%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	66.5%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	66.5%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	44.6%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	67.1%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	67.1%	42.6%	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	69.1%	69.0%	67.1%	42.6%	33.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	87.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	86.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	86.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	86.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	84.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗