KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

69%

67%

43%

34%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

ICONNO 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.70u · ICON −48.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	12.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	29.6%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	4.7%	0.1%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	45.1%	7.4%	43.7%	28.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	55.8%	12.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	47.7%	15.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	26.8%	65.5%	9.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	8.2%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	10.8%	72.8%	1.1%	—	14.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	5.4%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	3.2%	71.6%	12.7%	—	23.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	11.6%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	8.3%	67.8%	19.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	12.7%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	14.2%	64.3%	9.8%	—	31.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	17.7%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	12.3%	67.0%	12.8%	—	27.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	25.3%	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	48.9%	59.7%	17.6%	75.3%	39.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	54.5%	75.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	57.0%	74.0%	23.3%	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	63.0%	74.7%	14.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	58.7%	55.0%	22.7%	18.2%	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	41.0%	52.6%	15.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	46.0%	52.7%	11.3%	28.4%	17.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	52.8%	55.6%	26.5%	—	25.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	62.8%	58.6%	28.0%	42.8%	29.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	64.8%	66.2%	20.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	57.9%	66.8%	22.6%	27.6%	11.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	63.0%	59.8%	29.5%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	87.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	86.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	86.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	86.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	84.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗