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KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
53%
AIFS
50%
WN2
50%
HRES
36%
ICON
34%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 43.1¢Risks 21.57u
VS
ICONNO 56.9¢Risks 28.43u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.43u · ICON −28.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00AIFS Single: 61.4% · 2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.3% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00IFS HRES: 27.1% · 2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00ICON: 42.2% · 2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00ICON: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:0010-07 04:2010-07 10:2510-07 15:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:0061.4%55.3%33.7%27.1%42.2%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:0061.4%55.3%65.1%27.1%42.2%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:0061.4%55.3%65.1%27.1%42.2%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:0061.4%55.3%65.1%27.1%42.2%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:0055.9%55.3%65.1%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:0055.9%55.3%65.1%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:0055.9%55.3%65.1%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:0055.9%55.3%65.1%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:0055.9%55.3%65.1%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:0055.9%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:0055.9%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:0055.9%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:0050.0%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:0050.0%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:0050.0%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:0050.0%52.8%50.0%36.4%33.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%87.0°F3.1°F2026-10-07 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%86.7°F2.8°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
AIFS Single50%86.5°F4.0°F2026-10-07 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%86.5°F2.9°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
National Blend46%86.0°F4.4°F2026-10-07 06:00Pending
IFS HRES36%85.2°F3.7°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
ICON34%85.0°F3.5°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗