KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

50%

50%

36%

34%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.1¢Risks 21.57u

ICONNO 56.9¢Risks 28.43u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.43u · ICON −28.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	9.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	24.4%	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	3.2%	0.1%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	38.2%	5.2%	36.9%	22.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	48.5%	8.7%	—	17.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	40.2%	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	20.6%	57.9%	6.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	5.5%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	7.4%	65.5%	0.6%	—	10.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	3.4%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	1.9%	63.7%	8.6%	—	17.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	7.8%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	5.3%	59.1%	13.4%	—	16.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	8.4%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	9.4%	54.9%	6.2%	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	11.9%	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	7.8%	57.2%	8.2%	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	17.6%	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	38.2%	48.9%	11.4%	65.9%	29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	43.3%	65.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	45.4%	63.7%	15.3%	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	51.2%	64.1%	8.7%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	46.3%	42.6%	14.4%	11.2%	21.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	29.1%	39.8%	8.7%	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	33.1%	39.4%	6.1%	18.2%	10.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	39.0%	41.7%	16.4%	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	48.5%	44.2%	17.2%	29.3%	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	50.0%	51.5%	11.2%	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	42.1%	51.6%	12.5%	16.1%	5.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	46.7%	43.4%	17.0%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	86.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	86.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	86.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	85.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗