KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

18%

18%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.4¢Risks 18.45u

ICONNO 81.5¢Risks 81.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.55u · ICON −81.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T07:42:49+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	3.0%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	3.0%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	3.0%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	3.0%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	3.0%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T11:29:10+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	27.0%	2.8%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T13:44:45+00:00	24.1%	2.8%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	24.2%	2.8%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T15:18:11+00:00	24.2%	3.0%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	24.2%	3.0%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	24.2%	3.0%	1.9%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	24.2%	3.0%	3.3%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	24.2%	3.0%	3.3%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	24.2%	3.0%	3.3%	35.3%	—
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	3.3%	20.6%	—
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	3.3%	20.6%	—
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	3.3%	20.6%	—
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	3.3%	20.6%	—
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	3.3%	20.6%	—
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	21.0%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T03:20:56+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	2.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T05:36:47+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	28.0%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	28.0%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	28.0%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	28.0%	3.0%	15.8%	20.6%	—
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	28.0%	4.0%	21.4%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	28.0%	4.0%	21.4%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	28.0%	4.0%	21.4%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	28.0%	4.0%	21.4%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	21.4%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	22.5%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	22.5%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	22.5%	11.3%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	24.3%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	16.5%	11.3%	28.6%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	26.1%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T03:33:06+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	18.2%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	13.4%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	13.4%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	13.4%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	25.5%	4.2%	13.4%	17.4%	28.6%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	28.4%	4.2%	13.4%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	28.4%	4.2%	13.4%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	28.4%	4.2%	13.4%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	28.4%	4.2%	13.4%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	28.4%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	28.4%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	28.4%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	28.4%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	11.0%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	9.3%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	9.3%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	14.0%	4.5%	9.3%	12.0%	20.4%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	21.9%	4.5%	9.3%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	21.9%	4.5%	9.3%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	21.9%	4.5%	9.3%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	21.9%	4.5%	9.3%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	21.9%	4.5%	9.3%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	21.9%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	21.9%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	21.9%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	12.5%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	11.0%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	11.0%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	35.7%	4.8%	11.0%	13.1%	9.5%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	34.8%	4.8%	11.0%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T08:15:42+00:00	34.8%	4.8%	11.0%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	34.8%	4.8%	11.0%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	34.8%	4.8%	11.0%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	34.8%	4.8%	11.0%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	34.8%	5.5%	14.4%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	34.8%	5.5%	14.4%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	34.8%	5.5%	14.4%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	26.5%	5.5%	14.4%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	26.5%	5.5%	14.5%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00	26.5%	5.9%	14.5%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	26.5%	5.9%	14.5%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	26.5%	5.9%	14.5%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	26.5%	5.9%	11.1%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	26.5%	5.9%	11.1%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	26.5%	5.9%	11.1%	7.5%	1.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	11.1%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	11.1%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	11.1%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	11.1%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	11.1%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	34.0%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	37.3%	5.9%	15.8%	10.4%	3.5%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	40.0%	5.9%	15.8%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	40.0%	5.9%	15.8%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	40.0%	5.9%	15.8%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	40.0%	5.9%	15.8%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	40.0%	5.9%	15.8%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	40.0%	14.5%	14.9%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	40.0%	14.5%	14.9%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	40.0%	14.5%	14.9%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	35.7%	14.5%	14.9%	18.6%	2.1%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	35.6%	15.0%	14.9%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	14.9%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	14.9%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	14.9%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	35.6%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.3%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	33.1%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	33.1%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	33.1%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	33.1%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	33.1%	10.2%	12.3%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	33.1%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	33.1%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	33.1%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	11.7%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	32.2%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	2.2%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	35.9%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	35.9%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	35.9%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	35.9%	9.6%	25.6%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	35.9%	18.6%	19.3%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	35.9%	18.6%	19.3%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	35.9%	18.6%	19.3%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	35.9%	18.6%	19.3%	18.6%	10.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	34.9%	18.7%	19.3%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	34.9%	18.7%	19.3%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	34.9%	18.6%	19.2%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	34.9%	18.6%	19.2%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	34.9%	18.6%	8.8%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	34.9%	18.6%	8.8%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	34.9%	18.6%	8.8%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	34.9%	18.6%	8.8%	18.6%	10.7%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	35.8%	18.6%	8.8%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	35.8%	18.6%	8.8%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	35.8%	18.6%	8.8%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	35.8%	18.6%	8.8%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	35.8%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	35.8%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	35.8%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	35.8%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	8.3%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	28.1%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	28.1%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	33.1%	19.5%	28.1%	9.0%	14.8%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	27.5%	19.5%	28.1%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	27.5%	19.5%	28.1%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	27.5%	19.5%	28.1%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	27.5%	19.5%	28.1%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	27.5%	19.5%	28.1%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	27.5%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	27.5%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	27.5%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	15.3%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	4.4%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	4.4%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	22.7%	16.0%	4.4%	12.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	28.3%	16.0%	4.4%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	28.3%	16.0%	4.4%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T21:04:33+00:00	28.3%	16.0%	4.4%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	28.3%	16.0%	4.4%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	28.3%	16.0%	4.4%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	28.3%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	28.3%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	28.3%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	6.7%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	17.8%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	17.8%	10.4%	6.0%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	30.9%	17.8%	17.8%	10.4%	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	87.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	86.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	86.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	84.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	86.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗