KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

18%

18%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.4¢Risks 18.45u

ICONNO 81.5¢Risks 81.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.55u · ICON −81.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	4.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	12.2%	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	6.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.9%	0.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	20.4%	1.6%	19.4%	9.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	27.9%	2.8%	—	6.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	20.5%	3.8%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	7.8%	34.5%	1.8%	—	4.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.4%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	1.9%	40.9%	0.1%	—	2.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.7%	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.3%	37.9%	2.2%	—	5.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.8%	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	1.0%	32.2%	3.6%	—	4.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	1.8%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	2.0%	27.1%	1.2%	—	7.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	2.7%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	1.4%	27.6%	1.5%	—	5.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.2%	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	13.1%	19.8%	2.1%	34.1%	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	15.4%	32.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	16.0%	30.0%	2.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	19.1%	29.3%	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	15.1%	13.0%	2.3%	1.6%	4.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.4%	10.9%	1.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	7.4%	10.1%	0.5%	2.8%	1.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.2%	10.4%	2.1%	—	2.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	13.0%	10.8%	2.1%	5.1%	2.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	12.8%	13.6%	0.9%	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.3%	12.5%	1.0%	1.5%	0.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	7.9%	1.4%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	87.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	86.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	86.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	84.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	86.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗