KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

32%

29%

20%

14%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

ICONNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.15u · ICON −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	28.2%	48.2%	33.7%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	28.2%	48.2%	33.7%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	26.0%	48.2%	33.7%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	26.0%	48.2%	33.7%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	59.7%	13.9%	26.0%	48.2%	33.7%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	62.8%	13.9%	26.0%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	62.8%	13.9%	26.0%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	62.8%	13.9%	26.0%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	62.8%	13.9%	26.0%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	62.8%	13.9%	26.0%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	62.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	62.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	62.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	45.9%	26.3%	30.9%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	46.0%	26.3%	31.0%	41.1%	4.8%
2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00	29.7%	59.5%	21.9%	65.2%	21.4%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	29.7%	59.5%	14.4%	65.2%	21.4%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	29.7%	59.5%	14.4%	65.2%	21.4%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	29.7%	59.5%	14.4%	65.2%	21.4%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	36.7%	59.5%	14.4%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	36.7%	59.5%	14.4%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-07T21:04:33+00:00	36.7%	59.5%	14.4%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	36.7%	59.5%	14.4%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	36.7%	59.5%	14.4%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	36.7%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	36.7%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	36.7%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	15.9%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	32.6%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	32.6%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	42.3%	61.8%	32.6%	51.9%	24.9%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	31.7%	61.8%	32.6%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	31.7%	61.8%	32.6%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	31.7%	61.8%	32.6%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	31.7%	61.8%	32.6%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	31.7%	61.8%	32.6%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	31.7%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	31.7%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	31.7%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	31.7%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	25.0%	55.0%	16.1%	63.6%	22.2%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	32.6%	55.0%	16.1%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	32.6%	55.0%	16.1%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	32.6%	55.0%	16.1%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	32.6%	55.0%	16.1%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	32.6%	55.0%	16.1%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	32.6%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	32.6%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	32.6%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	6.2%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	19.7%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	19.7%	32.5%	13.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	29.1%	56.2%	19.7%	32.5%	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	86.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	86.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	86.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗