KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

32%

29%

20%

14%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

ICONNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.15u · ICON −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	0.3%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	12.0%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	33.6%	—	29.5%	14.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	46.0%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	47.9%	1.3%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	22.6%	53.6%	0.8%	—	15.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	12.2%	47.7%	0.7%	—	17.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	0.8%	42.1%	1.0%	—	14.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	0.0%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	2.0%	33.0%	4.9%	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	12.2%	47.4%	8.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	11.6%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	5.3%	30.6%	3.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	7.7%	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	4.2%	26.3%	0.6%	0.4%	21.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.3%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	12.3%	—	4.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	20.5%	58.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	24.7%	32.1%	7.0%	46.7%	45.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	7.5%	35.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	27.0%	26.0%	9.0%	26.0%	33.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	51.2%	42.8%	4.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	32.0%	46.3%	7.5%	17.4%	36.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	31.4%	24.8%	9.8%	—	15.8%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	18.2%	28.4%	10.1%	5.0%	8.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	18.2%	3.2%	7.6%	—	7.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	20.2%	7.3%	7.3%	8.3%	10.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	14.4%	1.1%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	4.1%	0.4%	2.9%	0.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	4.1%	0.0%	—	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	86.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	86.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	86.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗