KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

55%

33%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

AIFSNO 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.30u · AIFS −50.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T15:27:26+00:00	40.1%	100.0%	46.1%	95.4%	70.5%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	40.1%	100.0%	46.1%	95.4%	70.5%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	40.1%	100.0%	32.9%	95.4%	70.5%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	40.1%	100.0%	32.9%	95.4%	70.5%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	40.1%	100.0%	32.9%	95.4%	70.5%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	40.1%	100.0%	32.9%	95.4%	70.5%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	36.3%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:02+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	34.4%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	70.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	39.6%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	39.6%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	39.6%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	39.6%	100.0%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	39.6%	94.1%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	39.6%	94.1%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	39.6%	94.1%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	39.6%	94.1%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00	5.3%	94.1%	32.9%	82.6%	54.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	76.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	71.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	71.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	67.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗