KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

83%

55%

33%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

AIFSNO 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.30u · AIFS −50.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	17.1%	—	—	70.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	98.2%	—	97.3%	93.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	89.3%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	87.2%	92.3%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	93.3%	96.4%	56.3%	—	95.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	60.1%	91.8%	47.8%	—	96.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	95.9%	92.7%	45.4%	—	98.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	81.6%	97.9%	67.7%	—	98.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	74.4%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	96.9%	78.1%	33.8%	—	98.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	68.2%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	89.5%	99.9%	23.4%	—	99.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	69.0%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	72.6%	—	56.4%	—	93.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	82.3%	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	82.3%	85.8%	71.3%	95.4%	90.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	70.1%	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	81.7%	84.9%	74.9%	—	79.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	94.8%	92.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	90.1%	96.0%	41.3%	—	68.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	94.6%	92.5%	43.3%	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	87.3%	92.4%	41.9%	84.0%	50.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	84.0%	81.7%	75.6%	—	48.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	83.4%	79.2%	85.6%	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	86.5%	76.2%	25.9%	—	52.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	85.1%	82.7%	17.3%	80.0%	30.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	77.9%	85.3%	10.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	82.8%	92.2%	23.4%	72.0%	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.2%	23.6%	7.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	0.0%	16.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	76.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	71.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	71.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	67.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗