KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

WN2NO 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.10u · WN2 −51.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	2.9%	98.5%	0.1%	15.2%	10.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	2.9%	98.5%	0.1%	15.2%	10.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	2.9%	98.5%	0.1%	15.2%	10.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	2.9%	98.5%	0.4%	15.2%	10.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	2.9%	98.5%	0.4%	15.2%	10.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	2.9%	98.5%	0.4%	15.2%	10.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	3.4%	98.5%	0.4%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	3.4%	98.5%	0.4%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	3.4%	98.5%	0.4%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	3.4%	98.5%	0.4%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	3.4%	98.5%	0.4%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	3.4%	97.6%	0.2%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	3.4%	97.6%	0.2%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	3.4%	97.6%	0.2%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	3.4%	97.6%	0.2%	1.0%	9.7%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	2.2%	97.6%	0.2%	0.9%	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	88.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	76.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
ICON	10%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	73.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	72.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗