KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

WN2NO 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.10u · WN2 −51.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	76.7%	—	71.3%	55.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	43.1%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	34.8%	46.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	46.5%	58.4%	7.7%	—	55.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	8.2%	39.9%	4.4%	—	57.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	50.8%	39.4%	3.3%	—	68.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	18.4%	59.5%	9.0%	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.8%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	49.2%	13.4%	1.1%	—	66.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	7.2%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	23.4%	84.4%	0.3%	—	67.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.3%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.0%	—	2.8%	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	11.3%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	10.2%	13.1%	5.1%	30.4%	19.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.2%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.8%	9.8%	4.9%	—	6.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	22.0%	16.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.9%	23.8%	0.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.5%	13.5%	0.3%	—	0.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	11.6%	0.2%	5.1%	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.3%	3.5%	2.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.3%	2.3%	4.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.5%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.4%	1.9%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	1.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	3.2%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	88.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	76.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
ICON	10%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	73.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	72.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗