KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

44%

18%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

AIFSNO 64.6¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.65u · AIFS −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	18.5%	68.9%	50.0%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	18.5%	68.9%	50.0%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	18.5%	68.9%	50.0%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	18.5%	68.9%	50.0%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	18.5%	68.9%	50.0%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	18.5%	77.2%	54.9%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	18.5%	77.2%	54.9%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	18.5%	77.2%	54.9%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	47.9%	77.2%	54.9%	11.0%	25.8%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	47.9%	77.2%	54.9%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T15:06:53+00:00	47.9%	77.6%	54.9%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	47.9%	77.6%	54.9%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	47.9%	77.6%	54.9%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	47.9%	77.6%	45.1%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	47.9%	77.6%	45.1%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	47.9%	77.6%	45.1%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	45.1%	68.7%	69.6%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	45.1%	68.7%	69.6%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	45.1%	68.7%	69.6%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	45.1%	68.7%	69.6%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	45.1%	68.7%	69.6%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	14.5%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	8.4%	77.6%	43.5%	69.3%	69.6%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	15.0%	77.6%	43.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	15.0%	77.6%	43.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	15.0%	77.6%	43.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	15.0%	77.6%	43.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	15.0%	77.6%	43.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	15.0%	84.1%	22.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	15.0%	84.1%	22.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	15.0%	84.1%	22.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	1.4%	84.1%	22.5%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	1.4%	84.0%	22.7%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	1.4%	79.0%	22.7%	44.0%	4.7%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	1.0%	78.4%	10.4%	44.0%	32.6%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	1.0%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	32.6%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	1.0%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	32.6%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	1.0%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	32.6%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	1.0%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	32.6%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	0.9%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	0.9%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	0.9%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	0.9%	78.4%	14.0%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	0.9%	67.8%	3.4%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	0.9%	67.8%	3.4%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	0.9%	67.8%	3.4%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	0.9%	67.8%	3.4%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	2.9%	67.8%	3.3%	44.0%	17.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	2.9%	67.8%	3.3%	44.0%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	84.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	80.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	79.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	76.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	72.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗