KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

44%

18%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

AIFSNO 64.6¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.65u · AIFS −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	12.4%	48.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	22.6%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	3.9%	0.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	55.6%	6.5%	1.1%	—	43.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.3%	13.6%	3.6%	—	42.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.0%	0.1%	27.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.9%	18.9%	1.5%	—	21.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	0.9%	—	12.9%	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	1.4%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.3%	37.9%	2.1%	—	2.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	1.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.7%	0.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	84.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	80.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	79.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	18%	76.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	72.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗