KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

89%

52%

38%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

HRESNO 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.10u · HRES −34.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	57.0%	35.3%	44.8%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	57.0%	35.3%	44.8%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	88.3%	35.3%	44.8%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	88.3%	35.3%	44.8%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	88.3%	35.3%	44.8%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	92.2%	50.0%	88.3%	35.3%	44.8%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	94.4%	50.0%	88.3%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	94.4%	50.0%	88.3%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	94.4%	50.0%	88.3%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	94.4%	50.0%	88.3%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	94.4%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	94.4%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	94.4%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	94.4%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	93.7%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	93.7%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	93.7%	51.5%	92.4%	38.1%	88.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	89.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	88.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	89.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	84.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	81.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	79.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗