KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

89%

52%

38%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

HRESNO 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.10u · HRES −34.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	15.2%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	17.3%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	22.6%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.4%	17.6%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	5.6%	36.9%	13.7%	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	22.1%	2.8%	52.9%	—	39.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	83.5%	—	5.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	85.5%	84.6%	78.2%	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	0.2%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	80.5%	84.3%	76.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	44.9%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	77.9%	79.2%	73.8%	—	46.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	83.9%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	67.8%	79.1%	85.1%	—	69.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	84.1%	87.3%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	91.0%	89.3%	91.0%	—	87.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	93.7%	86.5%	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	87.2%	89.7%	88.2%	0.0%	83.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	80.2%	89.9%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	85.1%	93.4%	75.3%	—	88.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	85.2%	96.0%	0.0%	—	84.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	81.7%	96.9%	89.0%	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	78.4%	97.7%	87.4%	—	85.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	68.0%	97.7%	88.8%	59.9%	84.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	68.7%	98.1%	87.8%	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	71.6%	98.6%	87.4%	58.0%	76.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	77.9%	96.8%	89.6%	—	83.6%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	85.4%	96.8%	91.6%	61.4%	89.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	90.1%	97.8%	87.2%	—	81.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	91.7%	99.3%	83.9%	65.4%	91.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	99.4%	99.7%	92.1%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	89.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	88.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	89.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	84.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	81.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	79.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗