KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

73%

65%

62%

61%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.15u · ICON −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T15:27:27+00:00	76.4%	85.7%	68.7%	68.1%	71.1%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	76.4%	85.7%	68.7%	68.1%	71.1%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	76.4%	85.7%	65.1%	68.1%	71.1%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	76.4%	85.7%	65.1%	68.1%	71.1%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	76.4%	85.7%	65.1%	68.1%	71.1%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	76.4%	85.7%	65.1%	68.1%	71.1%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	74.2%	85.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	74.2%	85.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	74.2%	85.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	74.2%	85.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	74.2%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	74.2%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	74.2%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	74.2%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	73.4%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	73.4%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	73.4%	86.7%	65.1%	62.3%	61.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	88.1°F	2.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	88.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	86.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	86.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	86.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗