KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

73%

65%

62%

61%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.15u · ICON −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.9%	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	6.0%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	5.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	1.1%	14.9%	3.6%	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	6.6%	0.4%	25.4%	—	16.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	58.3%	—	0.8%	—	15.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	60.3%	58.7%	49.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	0.0%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	50.8%	56.6%	45.0%	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	16.2%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	45.6%	47.4%	40.5%	—	16.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	53.6%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	32.2%	45.4%	54.6%	—	33.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.9%	57.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.3%	60.6%	64.3%	—	56.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	70.1%	54.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	54.1%	59.2%	56.1%	0.0%	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	41.6%	58.4%	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	47.8%	65.9%	34.1%	—	53.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	46.6%	73.3%	0.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	39.6%	75.8%	52.3%	—	41.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	33.6%	78.4%	47.6%	—	44.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	21.7%	77.3%	48.8%	15.9%	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	20.9%	78.1%	44.9%	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	22.0%	80.0%	42.0%	12.7%	26.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	26.5%	67.5%	44.4%	—	33.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	34.5%	65.5%	47.1%	12.2%	41.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	41.0%	68.9%	35.2%	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	42.1%	80.8%	27.6%	11.7%	40.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	79.7%	85.9%	40.2%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	88.1°F	2.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	88.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	86.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	86.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	86.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗