KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

34%

29%

27%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.1¢Risks 24.05u

ICONNO 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.95u · ICON −75.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T14:53:50+00:00	45.2%	38.5%	32.8%	36.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	45.2%	38.3%	32.8%	36.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	45.2%	38.3%	32.8%	36.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	45.2%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	45.2%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	45.2%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	16.3%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	11.9%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	11.9%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	11.9%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	21.0%	36.0%	11.9%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	21.0%	31.7%	11.9%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	51.0%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	25.9%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	32.6%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	32.6%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	51.9%	38.3%	32.6%	32.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	46.0%	38.3%	32.6%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	46.0%	38.3%	32.6%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	46.0%	38.3%	32.6%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	46.0%	38.3%	32.6%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:44+00:00	46.0%	38.3%	32.6%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	46.0%	26.4%	34.1%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	46.0%	26.4%	34.1%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	46.0%	26.4%	34.1%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	36.3%	26.4%	34.1%	28.7%	11.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	36.3%	26.9%	34.1%	28.7%	11.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	87.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	86.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	86.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	12%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗