KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

34%

29%

27%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.1¢Risks 24.05u

ICONNO 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.95u · ICON −75.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	2.2%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.0%	1.7%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.2%	5.8%	1.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	2.0%	0.1%	11.3%	—	6.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	35.8%	—	0.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	36.7%	35.2%	26.8%	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	27.2%	32.2%	22.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	5.1%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	22.1%	23.4%	18.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	27.9%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	12.4%	20.9%	28.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	25.3%	30.1%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	35.7%	32.1%	35.7%	—	28.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	41.1%	25.7%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	25.1%	29.4%	26.8%	0.0%	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	15.6%	27.9%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	19.0%	34.1%	10.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	17.5%	41.0%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	12.7%	43.0%	20.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	9.2%	45.2%	16.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	4.3%	42.6%	16.6%	2.6%	12.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	3.7%	42.3%	13.5%	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.7%	43.3%	11.3%	1.6%	5.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	4.7%	27.6%	11.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	6.8%	24.5%	12.2%	1.2%	9.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	8.6%	26.0%	6.5%	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	8.3%	37.6%	3.7%	0.9%	7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	33.9%	43.4%	6.8%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	87.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	86.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	86.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	12%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗