KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

96%

89%

73%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.3¢Risks 85.30u

ICONNO 14.7¢Risks 14.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.70u · ICON −14.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	89.4%	76.7%	28.3%	21.1%	94.6%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	89.4%	76.7%	60.5%	21.1%	94.6%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	89.4%	76.7%	60.5%	21.1%	94.6%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	89.4%	76.7%	60.5%	21.1%	94.6%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	90.4%	76.7%	60.5%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	90.4%	76.7%	60.5%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	90.4%	76.7%	60.5%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	90.4%	76.7%	60.5%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	90.4%	76.7%	60.5%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	90.4%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	90.4%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	90.4%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T03:06:36+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	63.8%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	95.1%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	95.1%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	94.2%	78.4%	95.1%	78.9%	86.1%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	96.2%	78.4%	95.1%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	96.2%	78.4%	95.1%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	96.2%	78.4%	95.1%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	96.2%	78.4%	95.1%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	96.2%	78.4%	95.1%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	96.2%	95.8%	98.0%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	96.2%	95.8%	98.0%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	96.2%	95.8%	98.0%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	96.2%	95.8%	98.0%	89.0%	72.6%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	96.4%	95.8%	98.0%	89.0%	72.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	89.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	90.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	86.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	88.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	83.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗