KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 08 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

96%

89%

73%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.3¢Risks 85.30u

ICONNO 14.7¢Risks 14.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.70u · ICON −14.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	33.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	14.9%	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	4.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	42.5%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	69.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	12.1%	20.8%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	80.6%	—	4.5%	—	45.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	92.1%	85.2%	66.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	78.4%	81.1%	50.0%	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	57.9%	91.0%	79.4%	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	26.3%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	93.2%	91.6%	86.2%	—	81.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	89.3%	94.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	95.9%	93.0%	86.4%	—	85.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	95.7%	90.0%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	95.4%	91.0%	88.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	94.9%	91.6%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	94.4%	93.5%	89.8%	—	87.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	95.3%	95.8%	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	94.8%	97.0%	90.6%	—	87.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	88.9%	97.0%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	83.8%	97.7%	86.3%	0.5%	88.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	83.9%	98.6%	0.4%	—	83.9%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	83.2%	99.0%	89.0%	95.5%	86.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	89.2%	99.2%	89.2%	—	87.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	94.1%	99.4%	88.8%	0.3%	89.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	94.7%	99.4%	88.5%	—	84.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	93.0%	99.7%	87.4%	97.2%	85.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	98.4%	99.6%	89.6%	—	91.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	99.7%	92.2%	99.5%	94.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.8%	99.9%	93.0%	—	92.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.8%	99.9%	94.8%	99.9%	96.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	100.0%	100.0%	98.6%	—	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	89.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	90.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	86.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	88.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	83.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗