KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

34%

12%

10%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

ICONNO 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.55u · ICON −67.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:03+00:00	47.4%	17.0%	43.5%	23.0%	49.2%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	47.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	49.2%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	47.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	49.2%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	47.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	49.2%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	47.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	49.2%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	45.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	45.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	45.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	45.4%	17.0%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	45.4%	14.2%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	45.4%	14.2%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	45.4%	14.2%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	45.4%	14.2%	45.7%	23.0%	32.4%
2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00	49.1%	14.3%	45.7%	23.0%	32.5%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	52.0%	11.0%	40.6%	17.4%	7.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	40.6%	17.4%	7.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	17.4%	7.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	17.4%	7.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	17.4%	7.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	17.4%	7.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	31.6%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	52.0%	10.9%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	52.0%	10.5%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	59.9%	10.5%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	59.9%	10.5%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	59.9%	10.5%	34.1%	11.9%	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	90.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	89.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗