KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

34%

12%

10%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

ICONNO 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.55u · ICON −67.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	1.0%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	23.5%	—	0.1%	—	4.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	40.6%	27.2%	10.9%	—	2.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	17.4%	20.0%	4.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	5.5%	32.3%	16.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	0.7%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	34.5%	30.8%	21.3%	—	15.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	24.6%	35.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	40.5%	30.7%	19.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	37.6%	22.9%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	34.7%	23.0%	19.0%	—	11.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	30.9%	22.4%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	27.1%	24.7%	17.7%	—	14.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	28.2%	29.9%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	24.3%	33.0%	15.7%	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	12.1%	30.7%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	7.0%	32.1%	8.5%	0.0%	9.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	6.0%	36.7%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	4.8%	38.5%	8.1%	17.5%	6.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	7.0%	38.1%	7.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	10.6%	37.7%	5.5%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	9.8%	34.9%	4.3%	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	6.1%	39.4%	3.0%	13.4%	2.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	15.6%	30.0%	3.0%	—	3.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	29.3%	29.3%	3.2%	24.5%	4.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	29.8%	35.2%	2.7%	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	23.8%	29.0%	2.6%	27.6%	4.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	32.4%	33.9%	6.3%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	90.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	89.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗