KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

63%

61%

44%

33%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

WN2NO 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.25u · WN2 −42.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	0.6%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	76.7%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	0.6%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	76.7%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	0.6%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	76.7%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	76.7%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	8.7%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	6.0%	77.0%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	19.5%	60.9%	27.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	19.5%	62.9%	32.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	19.5%	62.9%	32.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	19.5%	62.9%	32.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	61.3%	62.9%	32.8%	43.8%	82.7%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	61.3%	62.9%	32.8%	43.8%	82.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	87.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	81.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	80.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	79.0°F	10.9°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	77.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 07 · 11:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗