KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

63%

61%

44%

33%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

WN2NO 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.25u · WN2 −42.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	77.2%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	68.8%	47.3%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	80.6%	95.1%	6.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	10.3%	67.0%	65.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	96.8%	99.1%	82.1%	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	98.7%	98.3%	79.4%	—	84.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	66.6%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	98.6%	90.6%	97.0%	—	79.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	95.9%	98.5%	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	93.5%	99.0%	95.5%	—	94.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	98.5%	99.7%	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	98.8%	99.7%	96.2%	—	97.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	98.1%	99.6%	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	96.5%	99.8%	97.0%	—	97.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	96.8%	99.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	96.7%	99.9%	92.9%	56.1%	97.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	85.6%	99.9%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	91.5%	99.9%	97.1%	—	97.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.5%	100.0%	11.8%	—	98.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.4%	100.0%	98.1%	100.0%	97.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.9%	100.0%	97.8%	—	97.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.9%	100.0%	99.3%	100.0%	98.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	—	98.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	100.0%	97.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	87.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	81.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	80.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	79.0°F	10.9°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	77.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 07 · 11:10 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗