KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

91%

88%

64%

62%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.6¢Risks 77.55u

ICONNO 22.4¢Risks 22.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.45u · ICON −22.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T15:27:27+00:00	87.0%	76.9%	71.0%	73.9%	87.1%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	87.0%	76.9%	71.0%	73.9%	87.1%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	87.0%	76.9%	90.2%	73.9%	87.1%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	87.0%	76.9%	90.2%	73.9%	87.1%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	87.0%	76.9%	90.2%	73.9%	87.1%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	87.0%	76.9%	90.2%	73.9%	87.1%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	87.4%	76.9%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	87.4%	76.9%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	87.4%	76.9%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	87.4%	76.9%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	87.4%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	87.4%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	87.4%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	87.4%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T04:17:05+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	90.2%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	86.6%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	84.8%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	88.0%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	88.0%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	88.0%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	88.0%	77.8%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	88.0%	90.6%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	88.0%	90.6%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	88.0%	90.6%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	88.0%	90.6%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	88.4%	90.6%	92.8%	64.2%	62.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	91.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	88.4°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	91.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	87.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	87.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗