KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

91%

88%

64%

62%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.6¢Risks 77.55u

ICONNO 22.4¢Risks 22.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.45u · ICON −22.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	18.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	37.5%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	28.0%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.4%	10.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	35.6%	66.4%	0.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	0.5%	19.9%	18.4%	—	22.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	69.7%	84.9%	33.7%	—	27.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	79.4%	76.4%	28.1%	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	15.8%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	76.8%	44.2%	66.2%	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	59.3%	74.7%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	49.1%	77.9%	56.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	72.1%	87.5%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	73.4%	86.1%	56.4%	—	60.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	65.7%	82.9%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	53.9%	86.4%	56.8%	—	60.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	54.0%	88.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	51.0%	91.8%	36.9%	4.9%	54.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	21.3%	89.4%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	29.2%	90.1%	48.9%	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	73.3%	90.8%	0.1%	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	66.9%	90.0%	51.2%	97.3%	46.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	80.1%	88.6%	46.4%	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	85.6%	91.5%	59.9%	97.9%	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	87.2%	93.6%	56.4%	—	48.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	86.6%	94.3%	52.7%	98.7%	31.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	77.9%	95.0%	72.4%	—	58.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	94.1%	91.6%	61.4%	99.6%	70.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	81.9%	93.5%	56.0%	—	56.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	84.8%	95.2%	76.2%	98.2%	59.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	94.2%	93.2%	84.0%	—	95.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	91.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	88.4°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	91.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	87.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	87.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗