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KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
41%
WN2
22%
ICON
8%
HRES
7%
EPS
7%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 23.8¢Risks 23.85u
VS
EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.15u · EPS −76.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:24+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T15:41:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-10-13T15:41:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T15:41:24+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T15:41:24+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:0010-13 15:4110-13 20:5710-14 02:14
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T15:41:24+00:0033.4%6.5%19.6%7.4%8.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:0033.4%6.5%19.6%7.4%8.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:0033.4%6.5%16.0%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:0033.4%6.7%21.5%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:0033.4%6.7%21.5%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:0033.4%6.7%21.5%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:0041.0%6.7%21.5%7.4%8.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:0041.0%6.7%21.5%7.4%8.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%93.0°F3.1°F2026-10-13 14:00Pending
AIFS Single41%91.6°F4.0°F2026-10-13 18:00Pending
National Blend39%91.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%90.2°F2.9°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
ICON8%87.6°F3.5°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES7%87.1°F3.7°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%87.7°F3.2°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗