KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

22%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.15u · EPS −76.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	8.3%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	4.6%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	0.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.4%	20.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.0%	1.7%	1.5%	—	2.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	20.5%	38.0%	3.9%	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	28.1%	24.8%	2.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	23.2%	5.3%	14.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	10.3%	20.1%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	5.9%	22.1%	8.3%	—	7.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	16.1%	33.4%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	16.0%	29.7%	7.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	10.4%	23.8%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	5.4%	27.1%	6.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	4.9%	28.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	3.8%	34.0%	1.6%	0.0%	4.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	0.4%	27.1%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.7%	26.4%	2.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	8.7%	25.8%	0.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	5.4%	22.4%	2.2%	45.4%	1.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	10.2%	18.3%	1.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	13.0%	20.8%	2.6%	43.8%	1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	12.8%	22.8%	1.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	10.7%	22.0%	1.1%	44.6%	0.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	4.7%	21.1%	3.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	16.3%	12.2%	1.2%	52.9%	2.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.1%	12.8%	0.6%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	13.4%	2.0%	25.0%	0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	7.9%	2.8%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	91.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	91.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	8%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	87.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗