KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

76%

75%

66%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.5¢Risks 77.45u

EPSNO 22.6¢Risks 22.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.55u · EPS −22.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:19:03+00:00	9.5%	43.5%	72.9%	74.6%	43.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	9.5%	43.5%	72.9%	74.6%	43.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	9.5%	43.5%	72.9%	74.6%	43.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	9.5%	43.5%	55.7%	74.6%	43.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	9.5%	43.5%	55.7%	74.6%	43.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	9.5%	43.5%	55.7%	74.6%	43.5%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	75.3%	43.5%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	75.3%	43.5%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	75.3%	43.5%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	75.3%	43.5%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	75.3%	43.5%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	75.3%	43.5%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	75.3%	48.7%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	75.3%	48.7%	55.7%	72.8%	84.8%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	55.7%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	55.7%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T15:27:28+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	55.7%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	55.7%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	79.3%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	79.3%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	79.3%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	78.2%	48.7%	79.3%	72.8%	85.1%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	75.3%	48.7%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	75.3%	48.7%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	75.3%	48.7%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	75.3%	48.7%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	75.3%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	75.3%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	75.3%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	75.3%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T04:17:05+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	79.3%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	33.1%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	87.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	83.7%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	83.7%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	83.7%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	83.7%	49.3%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	83.7%	65.9%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	83.7%	65.9%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	83.7%	65.9%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	83.7%	65.9%	50.9%	42.8%	66.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	50.9%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	50.9%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	50.9%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	50.9%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	78.1%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	67.1%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	80.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	80.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	80.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	84.5%	42.8%	80.3%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	84.5%	76.2%	80.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	89.2%	76.2%	80.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	89.2%	76.2%	80.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	83.7%	65.7%	89.2%	76.2%	80.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	75.0%	65.7%	89.2%	76.2%	80.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	75.0%	65.7%	89.2%	76.2%	80.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	75.0%	65.7%	89.2%	76.2%	80.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	90.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	90.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	89.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	88.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	87.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	86.0°F	8.7°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗