KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

76%

75%

66%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.5¢Risks 77.45u

EPSNO 22.6¢Risks 22.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.55u · EPS −22.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	0.2%	62.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	14.5%	80.6%	9.3%	—	32.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	75.1%	76.8%	1.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	79.5%	75.5%	25.8%	—	19.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	50.0%	88.5%	41.3%	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	15.3%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	69.2%	67.8%	59.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	46.6%	69.7%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	54.4%	59.6%	53.5%	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	60.7%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	63.6%	86.1%	53.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	21.7%	85.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	74.5%	90.2%	63.4%	—	65.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	74.3%	87.1%	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	77.3%	87.2%	71.5%	—	61.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	79.5%	87.9%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	88.6%	91.9%	65.9%	60.8%	70.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	89.3%	92.5%	0.6%	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	88.4%	94.3%	68.0%	44.2%	66.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	88.0%	95.5%	71.7%	—	71.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	95.1%	97.4%	62.3%	96.3%	77.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	95.7%	96.0%	65.1%	—	72.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	96.8%	97.0%	68.1%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	98.2%	96.3%	66.2%	—	79.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	98.7%	96.3%	75.5%	96.8%	87.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	99.6%	97.3%	35.2%	—	85.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	99.7%	98.7%	82.9%	85.8%	89.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	99.8%	99.2%	91.4%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	90.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	90.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	89.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	88.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	87.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	86.0°F	8.7°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗