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KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
46%
WN2
30%
HRES
26%
ICON
22%
EPS
15%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 30.3¢Risks 30.30u
VS
EPSNO 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.70u · EPS −69.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00AIFS Single: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 24.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00IFS HRES: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00IFS HRES: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00IFS HRES: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00IFS HRES: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:0044.0%13.9%29.2%24.2%20.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:0044.0%13.9%29.2%24.2%20.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:0044.0%13.9%29.2%23.5%20.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%23.5%20.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%23.5%20.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%23.5%20.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%25.2%22.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%25.2%22.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%25.2%22.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%25.2%22.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:0044.0%13.9%23.6%25.2%22.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:0044.0%14.6%30.4%25.9%22.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:0044.0%14.6%30.4%25.9%22.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:0044.0%14.6%30.4%25.9%22.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:0046.0%14.6%30.4%25.9%22.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:0046.0%14.6%30.4%25.9%22.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0046.0%14.6%30.4%25.9%22.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%93.0°F3.1°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
AIFS Single46%92.1°F4.0°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend31%91.0°F3.1°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%91.0°F2.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS HRES26%90.1°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
ICON22%89.8°F3.5°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%89.1°F3.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗