KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

30%

26%

22%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

EPSNO 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.70u · EPS −69.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.0%	18.9%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	1.1%	35.6%	0.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	27.2%	29.1%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	30.3%	25.8%	2.3%	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	8.1%	42.1%	5.3%	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.7%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	16.8%	15.7%	11.2%	—	5.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	5.6%	16.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	7.7%	9.7%	7.3%	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	9.6%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	10.2%	29.7%	6.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	26.9%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	14.7%	33.9%	8.6%	—	9.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	13.5%	26.5%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	14.5%	25.1%	10.8%	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	15.0%	24.5%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	30.1%	6.6%	5.0%	8.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	23.1%	29.6%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.9%	32.0%	5.7%	1.4%	5.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	17.5%	33.6%	6.2%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	29.8%	40.1%	3.0%	34.2%	7.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	29.1%	30.2%	3.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	30.7%	31.9%	3.0%	9.5%	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	36.3%	25.3%	2.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	37.2%	22.2%	3.2%	24.5%	8.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	48.5%	23.6%	0.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	46.8%	29.0%	3.4%	4.4%	6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	30.9%	6.3%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	92.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	31%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	91.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	89.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	89.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗