KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

66%

55%

22%

10%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

WN2NO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.85u · WN2 −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	8.6%	67.8%	47.7%	18.5%	59.7%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	8.6%	67.0%	47.7%	18.5%	59.7%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	8.6%	67.0%	47.7%	18.5%	59.7%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	47.7%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	47.7%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T15:27:28+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	47.7%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	47.7%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	37.3%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	37.3%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	37.3%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	4.1%	67.0%	37.3%	18.5%	59.6%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	26.5%	67.0%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	26.5%	67.0%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	26.5%	67.0%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	26.5%	67.0%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	26.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	26.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	26.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T01:15:16+00:00	26.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T04:17:06+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	37.3%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	17.5%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	73.6%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	21.8%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	21.8%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	21.8%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	21.8%	67.6%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	21.8%	66.0%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	21.8%	66.0%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	21.8%	66.0%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	21.8%	66.0%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	22.4%	65.9%	9.7%	76.6%	54.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	86.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	84.3°F	6.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	82.3°F	6.9°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	80.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	77.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	75.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗